Banks to loose 10% market share to social lending by 2010?

Consultancy Gartner predicts that: "By 2010, social-banking platforms will have captured 10% of the available market for retail lending and financial planning". Not surprisingly Zopa is happy about that forecast. I think this is an over-optimistic outlook but James Gardner of BankerVision (working at Lloyds TSB bank) who also thinks it is aggressive points to the example of Paypal, which has been underestimated years ago. A more supportive view comes from Antony Mayfield while taking Zopa as example.