P2P lending trends to expect in 2008

wiseclerk 4 Comments

2007 was a year of launch and growth for most players. What trends in peer to peer lending can be expected in 2008?

More competition and entering more national markets (probability 100%)
In many markets multiple p2p lending services will compete for the attention of lenders and borrowers, especially in the largest market: In the United States Globefunder.com and Loanio.com will launch. In other markets, where there is no national p2p lending service established yet (e.g. Canada, New Zealand, Spain), p2p lending will be introduced by the launch of a service.

Insurance against defaults (probability 75%)
Not totally new, since Boober.nl and Smava.de already offer some protection of the loan principal. Insurance can be implemented as a classical insurance product (supplied by an insurance company) or as a market mechanism, spreading the risk over multiple loans.

Secondary market (probability 25%)
One of the disadvantages for lenders currently is that on all p2p lending platforms, the invested money i locked in for the duration of the loan term. Prosper.com has allready announced that it plans a secondary market, enabling lenders to sell and buy loans any time. Depending on the market there are huge regulatory hurdles to allow trading of loans. For example German executives told P2P-Banking.com that on the German market a secondary market is unlikely for years to come.

Cross-market lending (probability <25%)
Aside form the social lending approaches (Kiva, MyC4, Microplace) so far all service are open only for lenders and borrowers that live in the same market. If lenders could lend to borrowers in markets with higher key interest rate than the market the lender lives in, the advantages could outweight the risks. In the European Union due to the Euro zone there would be no currency exchange risk. Again there are steep regulatory hurdles to be taken.

Variable interest loans (probability ?)
So far all loans are for fixed terms (prepayment allowed) with fixed interest rates. Variable interest loans could add flexibility. The interest rate could rise or decline following an indicator (e.g. market prime rate). Another possibility would be a mechanism where the variable interest rate would rise or fall as a result of the level of defaults of the credit grade. This could protect lenders, if the actual default ratio is higher then the forecasted default ratio.

Third party bidding management (probability?)
Just a thought. Lenders could allow a third party to manage their portfolio. Like an investment funds the lender would invest an amount of money, while the funds manager does the actual selection of loans. This could possibly be done by a sophisticated software (would you trust this?) selecting loans by statistical analysis of performance of loans with similiar parameters or by a fonds manager. The later is unlikely because the amount of time needed for each loan is too high to be covered by fees.

I'll check at the end of 2008 to see how these trends developed.

Classifying p2p lending services

wiseclerk

More and more p2p lending services are launching, each catering to different markets and different target audiences. Some derive more features from "ancestors" Prosper or Zopa, some less.

All follow the aim to allow lenders to directly lend money to borrowers without a bank acting as intermediary. This aim is sometimes not pursued strictly to the point. Smava actually partnered with a bank to comply with regulation, Zopa US partnered with credit unions, but nevertheless it serves as comprehensive definition.

Dividing p2p lending services in categories could follow several possible factors:

  • price building mechanism (auction/non-auction; interest set by platform/by borrower/by lender)
  • purpose of loan (private/business/both)
  • social lending vs. lending for profit

I think the last factor is most useful for the definition of categories. It affects all parts of the service from marketing to operations. The differentiation is in the objective the majority of the lenders had when selecting the platform. Were they attracted by the motivation to help an individual through a loan or by the motivation to earn interest? Continue reading →

Globefunder opens for borrower’s loan applications

wiseclerk

Globefunder is now open for loan request by borrowers (minimum credit score of 640 required). The signup for individual lenders at Globefunder is still "coming soon". 

A Columbus Business First newspaper article gave more details a few days ago: 

Interest rates for borrowers on GlobeFunder range from 8 percent to 20 percent. GlobeFunder makes its money by charging a onetime 1.75 percent fee to borrowers on their loans, and charging lenders 50 to 100 basis points of their investment over the 24- to 60-month loan term, Decio said.

A basis point is one-100th of a percent.

GlobeFunder is responsible for servicing, collecting and, if necessary, selling nonperforming loans to debt collection firms, Decio said. Continue reading →

Impact of Kenya’s crisis on p2p lending operations

wiseclerk

The unrest after elections in Kenya might also to some degree impact operations of Kiva and MyC4 which are funding p2p loans in Kenya. As Jessica Jackley Flannery of Kiva reports operations of the local MFIs in Kenya have been interrupted:

The situation on the ground appears to vary widely from community to community. However, one consistent report is that business is not operating as usual; most MFI operations have been interrupted or stopped altogether in the last week, whether due to imminent danger in their region or the general disruption in daily life caused by turbulence elsewhere. Thankfully, as far as we know, none of our partner MFI staff have been hurt. Unfortunately, due to the magnitude of the situation, we anticipate that many entrepreneurs will have been displaced, hurt, or otherwise adversely affected.

Please be patient as this situation unfolds. We expect possible disruptions in our Kenya MFI partners’ operations as the staff on the ground recover.

On MyC4.com the local provider Growth Africa Capital writes from Nairobi, Kenya:

It probably hasn't escaped your attention that the Kenyan elections didn't go a smoothly as we had all hoped and has resulted in a lot of unrest, violence, destruction and even deaths.

As I type (noon, 2nd January) things are slowly getting back to normal in Nairobi. The situation is also improving in Mombasa, though we are yet to get the same good news from the central Rift Valley, Western and Nyanza provinces.

We should have a full overview in terms of the wether any of the opportunities funded via MyC4 has been affected by the unrest by Monday (7th January).

Once safe to do so, we will look at the areas in Nairobi affected by the unrest and wether affordable funding will make a difference in the affected people's lives in terms of re-establishing their businesses. So stay tuned for opportunities that will help get Kenya and its enterprising people back to normal – your investment may make a huge difference.

While the situation in Kenya is somewhat unclear, the crisis is already impacting Uganda's economy. MyC4 only recently started in Kenya. The majority of loans are to entrepreneurs in Uganda. 
Ronald Isabirye of the local provider in Kampala, Uganda about the consequences: Continue reading →

Prosper raises fees

wiseclerk

Effective today Prosper.com has raised the closing fees for borrowers:

…The rationale behind this increase is to enable us to better cover our administrative costs and bring our fees more in line with the market. We have endeavored to continue to keep the fees very straightforward for our borrowers.

The origination fee schedule for borrowers of first and second loans will be as follows:

AA 1.00% (no change)
A 2.00%
B 2.00%
C 3.00%
D 3.00%
E 3.00%
HR 3.00%

…

Origination fees paid by existing borrowers and for listings that have already been created will not be impacted.

 

 

Overview of Lending Hub

Ivan Mantelli 1 Comment

Guest article, by Ivan Mantelli, Director Lending Hub 

Lending Hub is a p2p lending and borrowing platform for small to mid-sized personal loans with a core focus upon developing the site around communities, groups, friends and networks. The objective of the Lending Hub platform is to match individuals with surplus funds who are not active lenders with ordinary people who need funds. The site will be driven by the decisions of the users rather than a collective investment scheme (such as Zopa's initial model).

Lending Hub is a private Australian company based in Sydney. I am the Managing Director and have a varied background in SME management, investment banking and corporate strategy. My first venture was an education business which I started whilst completing a Bachelor of Science in Pharmacology at the University of NSW, following 4 years of growth I sold the education business and studied corporate finance with a Master of Finance at the University of Technology Sydney and quickly moved into investment banking gaining experience in corporate takeovers and mergers at the height of the private equity boom in Australia. My latest role includes strategy and planning for a large digital media company. Our other shareholders all have a hands-on role and bring additional experience in transactional banking, capital raising and project management.

The expected launch date is early 2008 and the market strategy will be to focus upon key categories of borrowers with decent credit ratings that fall just outside of the attention of the big five banks which in Australia are traditionally focused upon a small subset of the borrowing population and offer a product that is not tailored to individual depositors or borrowers. Initially social lending sites will attract a large number of these customers that are not well served by the major institutions and then over time the social lending platforms will begin to attract mainstream customers as this form of borrowing (and lending) becomes more commonplace.

Our major milestones will initially be site development and rolling out a number of user features to build a solid base of tools and to make the user experience extremely friendly and useful to them. At this stage we will focus upon the Australian market which generates at least AU$80 billion a year in personal loans (Australian Bureau of Statistics) rather than looking to other markets which have different regularity systems and also different consumer preferences and needs.

The Australian market is likely to have a handful of hopeful peer to peer lending entrants in 2008 including iGrin and Peermint and potentially other larger sites. Continue reading →