One of the biggest challenges for a new internet startup to offer an innovative financial service is to gain the trust of its potential customers. Consumers approach new concepts with legitimate caution.
The book ‘P2P Kredite – Marktplätze für Privatkredite im Internet‘ examines how p2p lending services can address the uncertainties and what measures can be used to build trust. After a short introduction of how p2p lending works and a look at Cashare, Smava, Zopa and Prosper the author covers the aspects credibility, safety, reputation, guarantee, sanctions, information and communication. Fabian Blaesi also describes how community features can help.
In an empirical study the importance of several factors for the perception and acceptance of p2p lending services by lenders is quantified.
Fred’s blog has an analysis of the financial data of the series D funding round Prosper Marketplace recently completed. The analysis shows that the valuation by the VCs per share issued dropped from 9.69 US$ per share in round C (June 2007) to 0.72 US$ per share in round D.
Canadian p2p lending service CommunityLend announces:
MorWEB partners with CommunityLend Inc. to provide direct access to unsecured lending options for the Canadian Mortgage Broker market
Marlborough Stirling Canada (MSC) is pleased to announce that direct access to CommunityLend, Canada’s only online Peer-to-Peer lending service, will now be available to the broker market using MorWEB.
MorWEB brokers will now be able to seamlessly refer clients directly to CommunityLend to arrange unsecured loans from private investors. This will provide another value added service to customers of mortgage brokers using MorWEB. Phase one of this novel integration is now available on the MorWEB platform with a more comprehensive integration scheduled for later this year.
CommunityLend, …, launched earlier this year and is exploring a number of different marketing options to spread the word about its services and to recruit good quality borrowers looking for more competitive rates for small unsecured loans.
â€We are excited by the opportunity to work with one of Canada’s leading software providers to the Mortgage industry,†noted Michael Garrity, CEO of CommunityLend. “We understand the important role of Mortgage Brokers in helping their clients to find the best rates on loans to meet their needs. …â€
Since CommunityLend is restricted to accredited investors* by regulation, this marketing move uses an existing multiplier to reach potential lenders. It continues the earlier reported trend of existing financial institutions partnering with new p2p lending players.
This twitter post caused some speculation that Zopa UK is working to add a secondary market to the p2p lending service. I didn’t contact Zopa management asking to comment on this for I believe they probably would neither have confirmed nor denied plans on a secondary market.
As discussed before the issue with offering a secondary market isn’t the technical or commercial implications, but to find a model that is in compliance with regulation.
Prosper Marketplace Inc., has successfully closed a the new funding round, which it announced two weeks ago. Prosper receives 14.7 million US$ from new investors Tomorrow Ventures and CompuCredit Holdings and existing investors Accel Partners, Benchmark Capital, DAG Ventures, Meritech Capital Partners, Omidyar Network, QED Investors and Volition Capital. TomorrowVentures is the investment vehicle for Google CEO Eric Schmidt.
I just watched the recorded webcast. It’s great that Lending Club uses these to communicate to the users. However I found the way some information were presented to the lenders to be controversial. About 11 minutes into the presentation the company advertises the Annualized Default Rate of 2.36%. Looking at the slide at 0:13:29 the company states “Less than Three Loans out of the 100 Default”. Is that right – does the percentage of Annualized Default Rate figure match the percentage of loans that default?
This does not match Lendingclub’s own definition of Annualized Default Rate, which is:
Annualized Default Rate is calculated by dividing the total amount of loans in default by the total amount of loans issued for more than 120 days, divided by the number of months loans in default have been outstanding and multiplied by twelve. The loans issued for less than 120 days are excluded from the calculation because loans are unlikely to default during the first 120 days.
I’ll create the following example to illustrate what Annualized Default Rate means to lenders. Imagine a bad-lucked lender that loaned 10 loans with 100 US$ each 12 months ago. First all went well, but after 10 months suddenly 5 of his borrowers failed to pay and defaulted. Colloquially that lender might swear: “That sucks, 50% of my loans defaulted”
Under the formula this gives us an annualized default rate of 8.3%. That sounds much better, doesn’t it? The important difference is that the annualized default rate figure is just a snapshot taken right now. It will rise over the time until the loans mature (if the lender does not invest in new loans). So after 36 months it will be much higher while the figure “50% of my loans defaulted” will not have changed after 36 months (if the other 5 loans continue to be paid on time). You may want to ask, if the figure could fall instead of rise? No, for a given portfolio the annualized default rate can only go up over time – no loan can return form a default but addituionally further loans could default.
So what does that mean?
First: An annualized default rate of 2,36% does not match the message “Less than Three Loans out of the 100 Default”. Second: Most of Lending Club’s loans are very young and the overall loan volume is growing. So even if – due to growth – the annualized default rate stays at 2,36% overall, it will rise higher for given loan portfolios orginated in the past. (Compare: ‘Lending Club Default Rates Much Higher than Initially Expected?‘).
Note that the same effects impact the Net Annualized Return rate.
