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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages

4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 141 ratings

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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital presents a novel interpretation of the good and bad times in the economy, taking a long-term perspective and linking technology and finance in an original and convincing way.

Carlota Perez draws upon Schumpeter's theories of the clustering of innovations to explain why each technological revolution gives rise to a paradigm shift and a 'New Economy' and how these 'opportunity explosions', focused on specific industries, also lead to the recurrence of financial bubbles and crises. These findings are illustrated with examples from the past two centuries: the industrial revolution, the age of steam and railways, the age of steel and electricity, the emergence of mass production and automobiles, and the current information revolution/knowledge society.

By analyzing the changing relationship between finance capital and production capital during the emergence, diffusion and assimilation of new technologies throughout the global economic system, this seminal book sheds new light on some of the most pressing economic problems of today.

A bold interpretation of how the changing relationship between technological advances and financial capital shapes the patterns of economic cycles, this path-breaking book will provide essential insights for business leaders, policymakers, academics and others concerned with managing change in the world economy.

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Editorial Reviews

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'Essential reading for all concerned with these specialist, but critically important issues.' -- Long Range Planning

'It [this book] is one of the most interesting histories of technology, if not the most informative, because it dwells on the dynamics of the technology/social/economic systems itself. . . Most tomes with theoretical goals like this are horribly dry, dense, wordy, and well. . .boring. This book is not. Perez writes with vigor, and grace, not taking an extra unneeded word, and not repeating herself. . . like a great many other seminal books, it is easily read by anyone truly interesting in how technology works.' -- Kevin Kelly, Wired Magazine

'. . . one of the most enjoyable economics books I have read for some time. . . this is a rich and detailed argument. . . a thought provoking read.' -- Mardi Dungey, Economic Record

About the Author

Carlota Perez, Faculty of Social Science, Ragnar Nurkse School of Innovation and Governance, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Edward Elgar Publishing (April 26, 2003)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 224 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1843763311
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1843763314
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 12.2 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.25 x 0.75 x 9.25 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 141 ratings

About the author

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Carlota Perez
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Carlota Perez is a British Venezuelan researcher, specialized in the socio-economic impact of major technical change and the historical context of growth and development.

She is the author of the influential book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Elgar 2002), which focussed on the role that finance plays in the diffusion of technological revolutions.

She is currently Honorary Professor at the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP) University College London, and at SPRU (Science and Technology Policy Research), University of Sussex, as well as Adjunct Professor of Technology and Development at the Technological University of Tallinn, Estonia and Academic in residence at Anthemis UK. Her current position as Honorary Professor at SPRU started with a research fellowship in 1983, when she began a long-term collaboration with Professor Chris Freeman. After a two-year appointment at CERF (Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance) at the Judge Business School of Cambridge University from 2002, she remained affiliated until 2014.

She currently teaches in the MPA at IIPP, in the master’s in technology governance and digital transitions at TalTech, in Estonia, and in a post-graduate course at IDS (Institute of Development Studies), Sussex University.

Her career began in the civil service in her country, Venezuela, and has spanned academic research, teaching and consultancy. In the late 1970s, she conducted research at Venezuela’s Central University on the structural causes of the energy crisis. She later worked as a member of a think tank at the Institute of Foreign Trade and, after that, became the founding Director of Technological Development at the Ministry of Industry in the 1980s, where, among other policies to promote innovation and the use of the new information and electronics technologies, she created the first venture capital fund in the country.

She has been a consultant for several Latin American governments and multilateral organisations, such as UNCTAD, UNIDO, CEPAL, the OECD, the Andean Pact and the World Bank. In the mid-1990s, she was an advisor to INTEVEP, the R&D and technology arm of PDVSA, the national oil company in Venezuela. She is regularly invited to lecture at universities around the world. Since the publication of her influential book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of bubbles and Golden Ages, she has frequently been asked as consultant for global corporations (IBM, Cisco, Telefonica, Mondragon, Ericsson, Sogeti, ING Bank and others) and to speak at major business and public sector events. From 2015 to 2016 she was the Chair of the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Expert Group for Green Growth and Jobs.

She did her initial degree in Interdisciplinary Social Sciences at the University of Paris VII, and her Master’s –as the initial formulation of her great surges theory– in San Francisco State University. She has since nurtured research links with several European universities. In 2021, she was awarded an Honorary Doctorate by the University of Utrecht. She has received many awards, among them, her book on Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital was chosen as one of the ‘books for the century’ in the Centennial Edition of the journal Foreign Affairs.

Her forthcoming book on the social shaping of technological revolutions should appear towards the end of 2024.

Her current areas of research and interest include:

• The impact of technical change and technological revolutions on society, business and economies

• The roles of finance, markets and governments in shaping technological revolutions and defining their social impact

• The changing windows of opportunity for developing countries

• Sustainability – ‘green growth’ – and its potential as a direction for innovation

• Conditions for natural resource-based innovation and development strategies

• Technology and the potential for overcoming inequality

For further information and access to videos and publications see her personal webpage

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Top reviews from the United States

  • Reviewed in the United States on February 13, 2005
    This book is a must-read. As someone who has been involved with computer/networking technology for over 30 years and high-tech finance for more than 20, I'm confident that there is nothing that surpasses this work in capturing the times in which we live. This book is simply a modern classic.

    With this book in hand you will find yourself saying, "How could anyone have missed the Internet 'crash' of 2000?" Of course it had to happen. Then you will be asking yourself, "When will we get past the frenzied hype about these technologies so we can finally make all this really useful?" Just as Perez has been asking.

    Throughout the 1980's and 1990's as a Wall Street analyst following technology companies, I regularly polled economists about the impact of computers and networks. At first there was no response. Later, we all began to hear about the "New Economy" and how everything had completely changed in economics. Yes, this was a pretty transparent attempt to rationalize stock valuations that had gone into orbit. In many ways it was even worse than no response at all.

    It wasn't until I read Technological Revolutions and began to look into why mainstream economists have had so little to say about technology, that I learned there was a fight over all this in the 1930/40s. Many were involved but Harvard's Joseph Schumpeter who authored Business Cycles in 1938 putting technology at center stage- was among the losers. Future generations of economists rarely delved into Schumpeter's heterodoxy. Fortunately, Perez revives the Schumpeterian tradition with a powerful reinterpretation and combines economics and technology with a clear and convincing voice.

    History is a pattern, not an endless repeating cycle but a distinct and discernable pattern. Perez has given us the outlines of that pattern, making all our jobs a great deal easier. Whether you're in the technology business or in finance or policy or just trying to make intelligent choices in a complicated world, you will benefit and learn from this book. What comes next is going to be important, on many levels, and understanding that in the past others successfully faced similar challenges - not just once but with each technological revolution -- should help to give us courage to face our own.
    42 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on June 18, 2014
    That should be the title of this book! The author separates then documents the evolution, development, and finally, expiration of several technology bubbles, starting with the use of steam to power large mills in England in the late 1700s. Next came railroads, then steel, then mass production, and finally integrated circuits. Several subcycles can be identified in EACH major technology cycle--new technology (expensive but not widespread and largely self funded), the finance people see there is money to be made so start investing, they overinvest, a bubble bursts, financial carnage and major shifts in job and consumer markets occur, technology becomes cheaper as it becomes more widespread, finance people start to see successively smaller margins (profits that is) from that technology. A new technology is just starting to be developed, but the finance people don't see it and won't invest. Finally profits from the previous technology are all taken, the finance people wake up and see the potential to make profits from the new technology, the cycle repeats.
    9 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on March 4, 2023
    Kindle. I like the book. It's an economics book to me and I enjoy reading about the framework of technological revolutions. The author's definition of technology does not limit to computer technology. The author means changes in the way people live, function, and work that is so significant and widespread that it is worth calling a technological revolution. In this book, she details 5 distinct enough technological revolutions spanning over 200 years. Industrial Revolution, Age of Steam and Railways, Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering, Age of Oil, the Automobile and Mass Production, and Age of Information and Telecommunications. Her research shows that each of these periods last between 40 and 60 years. While the author believes it is helpful to classify and categorize these periods to help explain history, she makes clear that these categorizations in no way mean putting a straightjacket on history or the future. It is meant as a fluid process of history and how to make sense of what happened. Within each period, there are 4 distinct stages that define that period. They are Irruption, Frenzy, Synergy and Maturity. She explains in detail what each of these stages mean and how they interact with each other as well as how they interact with financial capital. Overall, to me, this is an advanced book on how to look at history on technological revolutions and it does have implications for people who want to be an entrepreneur. Perhaps if history repeats itself and the Age of Information and Telecommunications started in 1971, this is 2023 and it has been 52 years since the Age started, this could mean the Maturity phase of this Age and the beginning of a new revolution.
    2 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on January 30, 2017
    I am really enjoying this book. Published in 2002, I wish she would update it for 2016.
    But overall it does provide a useful framework for the role of finance in the various bubbles since the 1800s, at least the bubbles that were technology based.

    Very accessible to an interested reader. A tad more than a modicum of economics background is all that is needed, but if you have much more, you'll not be bored either, I imagine.

    I'm in a startup and as I read thru the various chapters, I am constantly analyzing about how our company and target market fit into this framework.
    Useful thought exercises.
    8 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on July 19, 2019
    This book is one of the most important books to understand how technological revolutions drive the modern economy. I liked this book because it lays out a compelling case how technology drives the long-wave economic cycle. Perez's work builds on economists Schumpeter and Kondratiev from the 1920's and 1930's. If you want to know more about the dot-com bubble, the internet and investing and the latest wave with cryptocurrency, I think this is a core book to read.
    3 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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  • Giles Crouch
    5.0 out of 5 stars All Technologists Need to Read This
    Reviewed in Canada on June 3, 2023
    Dr. Perez' work is seminal and should be required reading not just for economists, but also sociologist and anthropologists and those in the technology industry. Very well laid out and important reading in a time of deep societal change impacted by digital technologies.
  • MikeH
    5.0 out of 5 stars Insights abound
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 28, 2024
    A remarkably insightful book, well ahead of its time, and now we see whether artificial intelligence will lead to that golden age
  • Tristan Schumann
    5.0 out of 5 stars Amazing read
    Reviewed in Germany on January 15, 2023
    Great work offering one possible framework to explain long-term economic development; modest in what its insights can achieve and what they are not; technical where necessary but incredibly concise and readable considering the topic's complexity; Perez narrative method to enlighten the economic matters makes this readable for any interested person irrespective of economic training.

    Unreserved recommendation.
  • PIERPIER
    4.0 out of 5 stars Libro molto interssante
    Reviewed in Italy on September 27, 2017
    Carlota Perez un economista venezuelana che insegna attualmente alla London School of Economics..
    Se vogliamo fare una sintesi estrema il suo libro si colloca tra Schumpeter e Kuhn. Infatti da Schumpeter prende la focalizzazione sulle evoluzioni/rivoluzioni tecnologiche come fonte primaria dello sviluppo economico. Da Thomas Kuhn (La Struttura delle Rivoluzioni Scientifiche) prende a prestito il concetto di cambiamenti di paradigma, che per la Perez divengono paradigmi tecno-economici, cioè il fatto che le rivoluzioni tecnologiche (insieme di nuove tecnologie, prodotti e industrie) comportano un grande cambiamento non solo nell’ambito produttivo ma anche in quello organizzativo e istituzionale.
    Le rivoluzioni tecnologiche e i cambiamenti di paradigmi tecno-economici diffondendosi nelle industrie e nell’economia danno vita a grandi ondate di sviluppo che si propagano in tutta la economia portando a cambiamenti strutturali nella produzione, distribuzione, consumo e comunicazione.
    Per la Perez la storia a partire dalla rivoluzione industriale si divide in 5 periodi di rivoluzioni tecnologiche. La prima è la rivoluzione industriale in Gran Bretagna che va dal 1770 sino al 1829, la seconda è l’età del vapore e delle ferrovie ( 1829-1875), la terza è l’età dell’acciaio, della elettricità e della ingegneria pesante ( 1875-1908), la quarta quella della automobile e della produzione di massa (1908-1971) e infine l’ultima, l’attuale è quella della informazione e delle telecomunicazioni.
    Queste onde di sviluppo si suddividono in due fasi, la prima fase prende il nome di Installazione, durante la quale le industrie nascenti, quelle che adottano le rivoluzioni tecnologiche, si pongono in contrapposizione con la resistenza del preesistente paradigma. Tra questa fase e la successiva vi è un punto di cambiamento in cui vengono superate le tensioni dando vita alla seconda fase diffusione (Deployment) in cui la trasformazione si diffonde in tutta la economia portando i suoi benefici.
    A sua volta ognuna di queste fasi si divide in due periodi. La fase di Installazione comprende un primo periodo Irruption, in cui iniziano a diffondersi nuovi prodotti e tecnologie adottati da giovani imprenditori. Le imprese del vecchio paradigma continuano ad operare ed essere finanziate ma si creano le condizioni per la divergenza tra vecchie e nuove imprese.
    Con la successiva fase (Frenzy) il capitale finanziario prende sempre più in mano la situazione cercando sempre più occasioni di guadagno che si trasformano in speculazione. Il denaro si sposta verso le nuove imprese con forme che assomigliano a un gioco d’azzardo che porta ad una inflazione da asset. A questo periodo turbolento segue un processo di cambiamento anche istituzionale per bilanciare la situazione e rendere possibile la fase successiva, in questo periodo si trovano le soluzioni affinché gli interessi individuali e quelli sociali trovino un giusto equilibrio. Se questo accade si pongono le condizioni per la fase di Sinergia in cui lo sviluppo della produzione si avvantaggia delle nuove tecnologie e infrastrutture, permettendo quindi un periodo di crescita equilibrata in cui prevale il capitale produttivo su quello finanziario e speculativo. Segue a questo periodo quello della Maturità in cui appunto i mercati incominciano a saturarsi e le tecnologie divengono mature e diminuiscono le occasioni di profitto, creando quindi le condizioni per la ricerca di nuove tecnologie e quindi di un nuovo ciclo di sviluppo. La durata delle rivoluzioni tecnologiche/cambiamenti dei paradigmi copre un periodo di circa 50/60 anni, cioè è questa la lunghezza del ciclo completo.
    Perez sottolinea, in particolare, il ruolo del capitale finanziario come abilitatore del massiccio spostamento degli investimenti richiesto dalle rivoluzioni tecnologiche. Infatti, quando le opportunità di investimento nel vecchio paradigma divengono meno interessanti c’è denaro libero che cerca nuove opportunità di investimento, l’esaurimento del vecchio paradigma crea quindi le condizioni per una nuova traiettoria tecnologica. La diffusione e sviluppo di ogni rivoluzione tecnologica stimola la innovazione finanziaria.
    Durante il periodo Frenzy il capitale produttivo diviene oggetto di manipolazione e speculazione. Questa è una fase di tensione tra le nuove produzioni e quelle in ristrutturazione. In questa fase i valori azionari si distaccano dall’economia reale, si creano tensioni tra economia reale e quella di carta e tra chi è socialmente escluso e chi beneficia della bolla, con un processo di redistribuzione del reddito che può portare ad una saturazione prematura del mercato. Il disastro finanziario che segna la fine del periodo di turbolenza è un forte strumento di persuasione per il cambiamento istituzionale.
    Si rende quindi necessario un riaggiustamento istituzionale, ponendo le condizioni per porre al centro il capitale produttivo e alla fine di tale periodo i valori di mercato tendono a riallinearsi a quelli reali. Il passaggio tra due fasi a volte comporta crisi finanziarie. La lunghezza del periodo recessivo dipende dalla capacità sociale e politica di ricreare un clima di maggior fiducia. Durante il periodo di Sinergia vengono adottate adeguate legislazioni e regolamentazioni per evitare gli abusi del periodo precedente, e per permettere una crescita più equilibrata.
    I cambiamenti tecno-economici implicano alti costi sociali. Le ondate di cambiamento infatti non sono solo fenomeni economici ma eventi sistemici che implicano fattori sociali e istituzionali. Il quadro socio istituzionale ha un inerzia maggiore di adattamento ai cambiamenti, ma il ruolo dello Stati e delle forze sociali è indispensabile per modellare la direzione verso cui si muoverà la società.
    La autrice avverte che il modello per quanto sia ben rappresentativo della storia passata è ovviamente una modellizzazione solo indicativa e che non va visto in maniera troppo rigida, ma può aiutare a meglio interpretare la complessità reale.
    In sintesi comunque un libro veramente molto interessante e ricco di analisi molto approfondite; mi pare anche che, visto che è stato scritto nel 2001, sia stato in grado in qualche modo di prevedere la crisi del 2008, come tipica crisi di un periodo di cambiamento tecnologico e conseguente frenesia finanziaria.
    Nelle conclusioni ritroviamo le idee di Polanyi (La Grande Trasformazione), per cui le rivoluzioni tecnologiche e i cambiamenti di paradigma, con le conseguenti innovazioni anche del capitale finanziario, portino alla necessità di modificare anche il quadro istituzionale come unico modo per permettere uno sviluppo più equilibrato.
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  • Subir ghosh
    5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
    Reviewed in India on June 10, 2016
    Great