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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages Paperback – 26 Feb. 2003

4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 136 ratings

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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital presents a novel interpretation of the good and bad times in the economy, taking a long-term perspective and linking technology and finance in an original and convincing way.

Carlota Perez draws upon Schumpeter's theories of the clustering of innovations to explain why each technological revolution gives rise to a paradigm shift and a 'New Economy' and how these 'opportunity explosions', focused on specific industries, also lead to the recurrence of financial bubbles and crises. These findings are illustrated with examples from the past two centuries: the industrial revolution, the age of steam and railways, the age of steel and electricity, the emergence of mass production and automobiles, and the current information revolution/knowledge society.

By analyzing the changing relationship between finance capital and production capital during the emergence, diffusion and assimilation of new technologies throughout the global economic system, this seminal book sheds new light on some of the most pressing economic problems of today.

A bold interpretation of how the changing relationship between technological advances and financial capital shapes the patterns of economic cycles, this path-breaking book will provide essential insights for business leaders, policymakers, academics and others concerned with managing change in the world economy.

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Review

'Essential reading for all concerned with these specialist, but critically important issues.' -- Long Range Planning

'It [this book] is one of the most interesting histories of technology, if not the most informative, because it dwells on the dynamics of the technology/social/economic systems itself. . . Most tomes with theoretical goals like this are horribly dry, dense, wordy, and well. . .boring. This book is not. Perez writes with vigor, and grace, not taking an extra unneeded word, and not repeating herself. . . like a great many other seminal books, it is easily read by anyone truly interesting in how technology works.' -- Kevin Kelly, Wired Magazine

'. . . one of the most enjoyable economics books I have read for some time. . . this is a rich and detailed argument. . . a thought provoking read.' -- Mardi Dungey, Economic Record

About the Author

Carlota Perez, Faculty of Social Science, Ragnar Nurkse School of Innovation and Governance, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd (26 Feb. 2003)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 224 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1843763311
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1843763314
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 15.88 x 1.91 x 23.5 cm
  • Customer reviews:
    4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 136 ratings

About the author

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Carlota Perez
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Carlota Perez is a British Venezuelan researcher, specialized in the socio-economic impact of major technical change and the historical context of growth and development.

She is the author of the influential book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Elgar 2002), which focussed on the role that finance plays in the diffusion of technological revolutions.

She is currently Honorary Professor at the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP) University College London, and at SPRU (Science and Technology Policy Research), University of Sussex, as well as Adjunct Professor of Technology and Development at the Technological University of Tallinn, Estonia and Academic in residence at Anthemis UK. Her current position as Honorary Professor at SPRU started with a research fellowship in 1983, when she began a long-term collaboration with Professor Chris Freeman. After a two-year appointment at CERF (Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance) at the Judge Business School of Cambridge University from 2002, she remained affiliated until 2014.

She currently teaches in the MPA at IIPP, in the master’s in technology governance and digital transitions at TalTech, in Estonia, and in a post-graduate course at IDS (Institute of Development Studies), Sussex University.

Her career began in the civil service in her country, Venezuela, and has spanned academic research, teaching and consultancy. In the late 1970s, she conducted research at Venezuela’s Central University on the structural causes of the energy crisis. She later worked as a member of a think tank at the Institute of Foreign Trade and, after that, became the founding Director of Technological Development at the Ministry of Industry in the 1980s, where, among other policies to promote innovation and the use of the new information and electronics technologies, she created the first venture capital fund in the country.

She has been a consultant for several Latin American governments and multilateral organisations, such as UNCTAD, UNIDO, CEPAL, the OECD, the Andean Pact and the World Bank. In the mid-1990s, she was an advisor to INTEVEP, the R&D and technology arm of PDVSA, the national oil company in Venezuela. She is regularly invited to lecture at universities around the world. Since the publication of her influential book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of bubbles and Golden Ages, she has frequently been asked as consultant for global corporations (IBM, Cisco, Telefonica, Mondragon, Ericsson, Sogeti, ING Bank and others) and to speak at major business and public sector events. From 2015 to 2016 she was the Chair of the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Expert Group for Green Growth and Jobs.

She did her initial degree in Interdisciplinary Social Sciences at the University of Paris VII, and her Master’s –as the initial formulation of her great surges theory– in San Francisco State University. She has since nurtured research links with several European universities. In 2021, she was awarded an Honorary Doctorate by the University of Utrecht. She has received many awards, among them, her book on Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital was chosen as one of the ‘books for the century’ in the Centennial Edition of the journal Foreign Affairs.

Her forthcoming book on the social shaping of technological revolutions should appear towards the end of 2024.

Her current areas of research and interest include:

• The impact of technical change and technological revolutions on society, business and economies

• The roles of finance, markets and governments in shaping technological revolutions and defining their social impact

• The changing windows of opportunity for developing countries

• Sustainability – ‘green growth’ – and its potential as a direction for innovation

• Conditions for natural resource-based innovation and development strategies

• Technology and the potential for overcoming inequality

For further information and access to videos and publications see her personal webpage

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Top reviews from United Kingdom

  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 28 April 2024
    A remarkably insightful book, well ahead of its time, and now we see whether artificial intelligence will lead to that golden age
  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 19 May 2013
    This is a superb exposition of how technology changes our world over the longer term in a series of cycles lasting roughly 60 - 80 years. The theories are all explained in simple and easy to understand language, and appended with clear examples.

    The current cycle that we are experiencing started in 1971, so depending on when you were born you might find this to be a revelatory text, explaining much of what has happened over the course of your life. In my case for example, as a 40 something, that's my entire life encapsulated as the 1st half of one cycle. Moreover, we are now at the most challenging and important part of the cycle when the fundamental underlying realities of our society need to be radically overhauled, primarily through intelligent governance. If you want to understand how the various power groups of the world are intersecting across the capitalist playing field, right now, this book is essential reading.
    9 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 23 December 2015
    I think the author's objective is very interesting and there is definitely a need for a book of this scope to follow up on Schumpeter's framework. Academic economics generally has very little to say about innovation and it is treated as an exogenous parameter ("it just happens"). I found the first part of the book, which focused on the structure of innovation, very useful and it definitely helped improve my thinking on the topic (5*). The second part, which focused on the finance of innovation, was not as strong in my view (3*). I fail to see any further contribution beyond what Kindleberger had to say. The link that the author develops seems superficial in my opinion. I was also expecting to see perhaps an in-depth treatment on the special role of Venture Capital or government military research funding. The author's model of innovation is promising but more work is needed.
    8 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 13 September 2020
    Carlota Perez's views of the interplay between technology, economy, and society make of this book a true classic in the lineage of Schumpeter's work on innovation. Highly recommendable.
  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 27 May 2018
    Super insights from Perez. Would be great to update for 21st Century eg Bitcoin... Some really fantastic insights and research. Well worth the very high price!
    One person found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 28 May 2021
    Historic book. Timeless.
  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 24 April 2014
    If you work in technology you must absolutely buy this book. The entire thing is a brilliant tour de force in finance meeting technology revolutions.
    2 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 4 January 2016
    Really nice and a quick delivery

Top reviews from other countries

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  • Giles Crouch
    5.0 out of 5 stars All Technologists Need to Read This
    Reviewed in Canada on 3 June 2023
    Dr. Perez' work is seminal and should be required reading not just for economists, but also sociologist and anthropologists and those in the technology industry. Very well laid out and important reading in a time of deep societal change impacted by digital technologies.
  • Tristan Schumann
    5.0 out of 5 stars Amazing read
    Reviewed in Germany on 15 January 2023
    Great work offering one possible framework to explain long-term economic development; modest in what its insights can achieve and what they are not; technical where necessary but incredibly concise and readable considering the topic's complexity; Perez narrative method to enlighten the economic matters makes this readable for any interested person irrespective of economic training.

    Unreserved recommendation.
  • PIERPIER
    4.0 out of 5 stars Libro molto interssante
    Reviewed in Italy on 27 September 2017
    Carlota Perez un economista venezuelana che insegna attualmente alla London School of Economics..
    Se vogliamo fare una sintesi estrema il suo libro si colloca tra Schumpeter e Kuhn. Infatti da Schumpeter prende la focalizzazione sulle evoluzioni/rivoluzioni tecnologiche come fonte primaria dello sviluppo economico. Da Thomas Kuhn (La Struttura delle Rivoluzioni Scientifiche) prende a prestito il concetto di cambiamenti di paradigma, che per la Perez divengono paradigmi tecno-economici, cioè il fatto che le rivoluzioni tecnologiche (insieme di nuove tecnologie, prodotti e industrie) comportano un grande cambiamento non solo nell’ambito produttivo ma anche in quello organizzativo e istituzionale.
    Le rivoluzioni tecnologiche e i cambiamenti di paradigmi tecno-economici diffondendosi nelle industrie e nell’economia danno vita a grandi ondate di sviluppo che si propagano in tutta la economia portando a cambiamenti strutturali nella produzione, distribuzione, consumo e comunicazione.
    Per la Perez la storia a partire dalla rivoluzione industriale si divide in 5 periodi di rivoluzioni tecnologiche. La prima è la rivoluzione industriale in Gran Bretagna che va dal 1770 sino al 1829, la seconda è l’età del vapore e delle ferrovie ( 1829-1875), la terza è l’età dell’acciaio, della elettricità e della ingegneria pesante ( 1875-1908), la quarta quella della automobile e della produzione di massa (1908-1971) e infine l’ultima, l’attuale è quella della informazione e delle telecomunicazioni.
    Queste onde di sviluppo si suddividono in due fasi, la prima fase prende il nome di Installazione, durante la quale le industrie nascenti, quelle che adottano le rivoluzioni tecnologiche, si pongono in contrapposizione con la resistenza del preesistente paradigma. Tra questa fase e la successiva vi è un punto di cambiamento in cui vengono superate le tensioni dando vita alla seconda fase diffusione (Deployment) in cui la trasformazione si diffonde in tutta la economia portando i suoi benefici.
    A sua volta ognuna di queste fasi si divide in due periodi. La fase di Installazione comprende un primo periodo Irruption, in cui iniziano a diffondersi nuovi prodotti e tecnologie adottati da giovani imprenditori. Le imprese del vecchio paradigma continuano ad operare ed essere finanziate ma si creano le condizioni per la divergenza tra vecchie e nuove imprese.
    Con la successiva fase (Frenzy) il capitale finanziario prende sempre più in mano la situazione cercando sempre più occasioni di guadagno che si trasformano in speculazione. Il denaro si sposta verso le nuove imprese con forme che assomigliano a un gioco d’azzardo che porta ad una inflazione da asset. A questo periodo turbolento segue un processo di cambiamento anche istituzionale per bilanciare la situazione e rendere possibile la fase successiva, in questo periodo si trovano le soluzioni affinché gli interessi individuali e quelli sociali trovino un giusto equilibrio. Se questo accade si pongono le condizioni per la fase di Sinergia in cui lo sviluppo della produzione si avvantaggia delle nuove tecnologie e infrastrutture, permettendo quindi un periodo di crescita equilibrata in cui prevale il capitale produttivo su quello finanziario e speculativo. Segue a questo periodo quello della Maturità in cui appunto i mercati incominciano a saturarsi e le tecnologie divengono mature e diminuiscono le occasioni di profitto, creando quindi le condizioni per la ricerca di nuove tecnologie e quindi di un nuovo ciclo di sviluppo. La durata delle rivoluzioni tecnologiche/cambiamenti dei paradigmi copre un periodo di circa 50/60 anni, cioè è questa la lunghezza del ciclo completo.
    Perez sottolinea, in particolare, il ruolo del capitale finanziario come abilitatore del massiccio spostamento degli investimenti richiesto dalle rivoluzioni tecnologiche. Infatti, quando le opportunità di investimento nel vecchio paradigma divengono meno interessanti c’è denaro libero che cerca nuove opportunità di investimento, l’esaurimento del vecchio paradigma crea quindi le condizioni per una nuova traiettoria tecnologica. La diffusione e sviluppo di ogni rivoluzione tecnologica stimola la innovazione finanziaria.
    Durante il periodo Frenzy il capitale produttivo diviene oggetto di manipolazione e speculazione. Questa è una fase di tensione tra le nuove produzioni e quelle in ristrutturazione. In questa fase i valori azionari si distaccano dall’economia reale, si creano tensioni tra economia reale e quella di carta e tra chi è socialmente escluso e chi beneficia della bolla, con un processo di redistribuzione del reddito che può portare ad una saturazione prematura del mercato. Il disastro finanziario che segna la fine del periodo di turbolenza è un forte strumento di persuasione per il cambiamento istituzionale.
    Si rende quindi necessario un riaggiustamento istituzionale, ponendo le condizioni per porre al centro il capitale produttivo e alla fine di tale periodo i valori di mercato tendono a riallinearsi a quelli reali. Il passaggio tra due fasi a volte comporta crisi finanziarie. La lunghezza del periodo recessivo dipende dalla capacità sociale e politica di ricreare un clima di maggior fiducia. Durante il periodo di Sinergia vengono adottate adeguate legislazioni e regolamentazioni per evitare gli abusi del periodo precedente, e per permettere una crescita più equilibrata.
    I cambiamenti tecno-economici implicano alti costi sociali. Le ondate di cambiamento infatti non sono solo fenomeni economici ma eventi sistemici che implicano fattori sociali e istituzionali. Il quadro socio istituzionale ha un inerzia maggiore di adattamento ai cambiamenti, ma il ruolo dello Stati e delle forze sociali è indispensabile per modellare la direzione verso cui si muoverà la società.
    La autrice avverte che il modello per quanto sia ben rappresentativo della storia passata è ovviamente una modellizzazione solo indicativa e che non va visto in maniera troppo rigida, ma può aiutare a meglio interpretare la complessità reale.
    In sintesi comunque un libro veramente molto interessante e ricco di analisi molto approfondite; mi pare anche che, visto che è stato scritto nel 2001, sia stato in grado in qualche modo di prevedere la crisi del 2008, come tipica crisi di un periodo di cambiamento tecnologico e conseguente frenesia finanziaria.
    Nelle conclusioni ritroviamo le idee di Polanyi (La Grande Trasformazione), per cui le rivoluzioni tecnologiche e i cambiamenti di paradigma, con le conseguenti innovazioni anche del capitale finanziario, portino alla necessità di modificare anche il quadro istituzionale come unico modo per permettere uno sviluppo più equilibrato.
    Report
  • Subir ghosh
    5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
    Reviewed in India on 10 June 2016
    Great
  • Mark Stahlman
    5.0 out of 5 stars This Book is Simply a Modern Classic -- It's a Must Read
    Reviewed in the United States on 13 February 2005
    This book is a must-read. As someone who has been involved with computer/networking technology for over 30 years and high-tech finance for more than 20, I'm confident that there is nothing that surpasses this work in capturing the times in which we live. This book is simply a modern classic.

    With this book in hand you will find yourself saying, "How could anyone have missed the Internet 'crash' of 2000?" Of course it had to happen. Then you will be asking yourself, "When will we get past the frenzied hype about these technologies so we can finally make all this really useful?" Just as Perez has been asking.

    Throughout the 1980's and 1990's as a Wall Street analyst following technology companies, I regularly polled economists about the impact of computers and networks. At first there was no response. Later, we all began to hear about the "New Economy" and how everything had completely changed in economics. Yes, this was a pretty transparent attempt to rationalize stock valuations that had gone into orbit. In many ways it was even worse than no response at all.

    It wasn't until I read Technological Revolutions and began to look into why mainstream economists have had so little to say about technology, that I learned there was a fight over all this in the 1930/40s. Many were involved but Harvard's Joseph Schumpeter who authored Business Cycles in 1938 putting technology at center stage- was among the losers. Future generations of economists rarely delved into Schumpeter's heterodoxy. Fortunately, Perez revives the Schumpeterian tradition with a powerful reinterpretation and combines economics and technology with a clear and convincing voice.

    History is a pattern, not an endless repeating cycle but a distinct and discernable pattern. Perez has given us the outlines of that pattern, making all our jobs a great deal easier. Whether you're in the technology business or in finance or policy or just trying to make intelligent choices in a complicated world, you will benefit and learn from this book. What comes next is going to be important, on many levels, and understanding that in the past others successfully faced similar challenges - not just once but with each technological revolution -- should help to give us courage to face our own.